Thursday, July 17, 2008

market trend: no promising sign with further setback from our incompetent government..

TheWhisperer said...

"My calculation tells me the oil bubble may burst once the price hit USD148.
Local economy is right about depression.. question is whether the world is well equip enough to avoid it.
Subprime at its peak totalled up to USD300 trillion. A conservative 10% non performing loan (NPL) would actually translate into a USD 30 trillion that need to be written off. And so far what have been written off is less than a trillion. Sub-prime woes ain't over yet.
That should explains the transfer of funds from equities into commodities and metal derivatives. Record prices been set mainly due to excessive speculation..
Dangerous precedent that could spell destruction to the world. That is why it is better to hold cash now only if we have any left by now.. lol"
27 June, 2008

That was my comment on crude price which i posted on article titled 'Crude Oil surpass the USD140 mark!!' when everybody was singing to the tune of crude price could reach the USD170 mark. Look like my calculation came close to reality for the time being. Please don't ask me how i arrive at that magic figure as it only came into my mind at that instance to add, subtract and multiply using levels and percentage. I now have the slightest idea on how i arrive at this USD148 figure.

Another similar incident happened during the late Feb 2007 stock market plunge. When it started, it occurred to me that i must calculate and try to get the bottom level. There i went adding, subtracting and multiplying on my calculator and i concluded that 1090 would be the bottom. And it happened exactly on the dot and came the big push. I did tried going backwards with my calculation and till today, i don't have any idea how i came to that 1090 level. My friends did suggested that i should keep a log on my calculations. Nah, it can never work that way. It has to be spontaneous at that instance when the mind is in the right frame with the fingers doing all the punching. And also the fact that each situation requires different sets of calculation as the factors involve varies.

Since my last post on June 5th ( i apologise for the long lapse ), i mentioned about the breach of 1200/1201 level would spell disaster to our market. A breach of this level would see an index-low lower than the August 2007 low. Please do not ask me what would be the low this time as my mind is still on holiday mood. However, i assure all of you that i would post it up immediately the moment my mind come out with one.

So, what is in store for us now? With the total daily volume been dwindled down to barely 300M, i expect this market to continue remain listless with downside bias. From the market cycle point of view, i suspect that we are going to have a downward trend for the first half of the cycle follow by a uptrend for the second half. To piece all these together, i foresee another wave of downtrend in August.

What we need to do now is to look for sign of a consistent build up in volume. Critical timing would be the last week of August and the first 4 days of September. Get ready to be involve then. Like i have said earlier, i don't have the index bottom yet but nevertheless, i will try to feel for one the soonest possible.
Meanwhile, sit back and relax. Unless you are involve in the futures derivative. This is the only place we can make our money for the time being. Short on strength but be careful towards the end of August. Don't get caught on your short position as the damage can be of serious consequences.
Again, it's only my 2 cent take here. So tread and trade at your own risk. I am just going to put my money where my mouth is.

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