"My calculation tells me the oil bubble may burst once the price hit USD148.
That was my comment on crude price which i posted on http://hishamjabar.blogspot.com/ article titled 'Crude Oil surpass the USD140 mark!!' when everybody was singing to the tune of crude price could reach the USD170 mark. Look like my calculation came close to reality for the time being. Please don't ask me how i arrive at that magic figure as it only came into my mind at that instance to add, subtract and multiply using levels and percentage. I now have the slightest idea on how i arrive at this USD148 figure.
Another similar incident happened during the late Feb 2007 stock market plunge. When it started, it occurred to me that i must calculate and try to get the bottom level. There i went adding, subtracting and multiplying on my calculator and i concluded that 1090 would be the bottom. And it happened exactly on the dot and came the big push. I did tried going backwards with my calculation and till today, i don't have any idea how i came to that 1090 level. My friends did suggested that i should keep a log on my calculations. Nah, it can never work that way. It has to be spontaneous at that instance when the mind is in the right frame with the fingers doing all the punching. And also the fact that each situation requires different sets of calculation as the factors involve varies.
Since my last post on June 5th ( i apologise for the long lapse ), i mentioned about the breach of 1200/1201 level would spell disaster to our market. A breach of this level would see an index-low lower than the August 2007 low. Please do not ask me what would be the low this time as my mind is still on holiday mood. However, i assure all of you that i would post it up immediately the moment my mind come out with one.
So, what is in store for us now? With the total daily volume been dwindled down to barely 300M, i expect this market to continue remain listless with downside bias. From the market cycle point of view, i suspect that we are going to have a downward trend for the first half of the cycle follow by a uptrend for the second half. To piece all these together, i foresee another wave of downtrend in August.